[Water Warrior 2]

I don't have a lot of experience with tires and tubes but I do have a couple thoughts. You may be better off with a smaller tube that will expand and fit the tire when you add air pressure. A slightly larger tube may not expand as readily and possibly bunch up inside the tire.
A smaller tube will be a bit lighter in weight and have less effect on wheel balance, unsprung weight on the bike and a wee difference in installation issues. These however are very minor and probably won't be noticeable or a concern for most folks.
I have had somewhat of a charmed life with tube type tires. I've never changed one. I have always been lucky to have an experinced person do the repairs/installs for me when problems cropped up.